The Problems with Canadian Geese

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22SAS_Wimp
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The Problems with Canadian Geese

Post by 22SAS_Wimp »

Hello everyone,
I recently filed a ticket with EW regarding how often the Canadian Geese seem to fly past without breaking. I was asked if I had any evidence - I did not... so I collected some. lol I ran experiments on the Canadian Geese to collect evidence to back up my complaints.
When I submitted the evidence, I was encouraged by Ahmed the Support guy to share this on the forums to see if anyone else has these issues. So for those of you who are interested, the following is everything the experiments proved (here is a link to the whole Evidence folder on my OneDrive (I won't be keeping this folder on my OneDrive indefinitely, so if it's 6 months after the date of this post, the link might not take you anywhere) - https://1drv.ms/u/s!Atb0hBjV3QyqgfNHrjGEhaZUJ5ZnjA, which includes documents that this is copied from).
BE WARNED: Do not download if you're offended by bad language. lol All written documents are either WordPad or NotePad, so that people without Microsoft Office can view them.
PS Please forgive the spelling errors in the enclosed documents - I's no clever.

Canada Goose Complaints Outline
These experiments were ran in order to collect evidence to backup my complaints about Canada Geese.
As mentioned in my original ticket, I had noticed that flocks broke less in Multiplayer. As I then mention in my first reply, it also seemed that the number of flocks diminish over time. Another complaint I had about the Geese that I didn't mention in the messages back and forth to Support was that there seemed to be less flocks in Multiplayer than Singleplayer.

The experiments I ran were in an effort to prove:
⦁ There are less flocks in Multiplayer than in Singleplayer.
⦁ Less flocks break formation in Multiplayer than in Singleplayer.
⦁ There are less flocks after around 45 minutes than during those 45 minutes.
⦁ That the break rate is not worth the expense of a full spread and the caller/lure.

Canada Goose Experiments Outline
All hunts start at 10:00 (in-game time) and are run wearing the Sneaky 3D Fall Field clothing set (all 5 pieces). Neither Scent Eliminator or a Retriever Dog were used during any experiment, and both Crouched & Standing stances were used at random while in the Waterfowl Blinds. Whenever "For First 20mins" etc is mentioned in the Experiment Stats document, this is from the time of arrival at the spread and not from the start of the hunt.

Experiments Group SP-Ctrl1
In SinglePlayer (SP), running straight to decoy spread setup but using neither the Long Range Caller or the Flag Lure as a control (Ctrl).
Run three times, one at each spread setup.

Experiments Group MP-Ctrl1
In MultiPlayer (MP), running straight to decoy spread setup but using neither the Long Range Caller or the Flag Lure as a control (Ctrl).
Run three times, one at each spread setup.

Experiments Group SP-Ctrl2FL
In SinglePlayer (SP), picking up all decoys at spread setup 1 but using the Flag Lure as a control (Ctrl).
Run only at Spread 1 'cos picking up all the decoys is a pain in the butt.

Experiments Group MP-Ctrl2LRC
In MultiPlayer (MP), picking up all decoys at spread setup 1 but using the Long Range Caller as a control (Ctrl).
Run only at Spread 1 'cos picking up all the decoys is a pain in the butt.

Experiments Group SP-Ctrl3FL
In SinglePlayer (SP), running straight to decoy spread setup and using the Flag Lure (FL), but not shooting any Geese at all (3), but scaring them away with the "flush whistle" or some other method instead.
Run once at each spread.

Experiments Group MP-Ctrl3FL
In MultiPlayer (MP), running straight to decoy spread setup and using the Flag Lure (FL), but not shooting any Geese at all (3), but scaring them away with the "flush whistle" or some other method instead.
Run once at each spread.

Experiments Group MP-Obs
In Multiplayer, observing other players hunts only.
Run as many as opportunity provides.


Experiments Group SP1FL
In SinglePlayer (SP), running straight to decoy spread setup (1), using the Flag Lure (FL).
Run three times, one at each spread setup.

Experiments Group SP2FL
In SinglePlayer (SP), spending approx 20mins (real time) before going to spread setup (2), using the Flag Lure (FL).
Run 3 times at all 3 spread setups.

Experiments Group SP1LRC
In SinglePlayer (SP), running straight to decoy spread setup (1), using the Long Range Caller (LRC).
Again, run once per spread.

Experiments Group SP2LRC
In SingplePlayer (SP), spending approx 20mins (real time) before going to spread setup (2), using the Long Range Caller (LRC).
3 times, 1 per spread.


Experiments Group MP1FL
In MultiPlayer (MP), running straight to decoy spread setup (1), using the Flag Lure (FL).
Run three times, one at each spread setup.

Experiments Group MP2FL
In MultiPlayer (MP), spending approx 20mins (real time) before going to spread setup (2), using the Flag Lure (FL).
Run 3 times at all 3 spread setups.

Experiments Group MP1LRC
In MultiPlayer (MP), running straight to decoy spread setup (1), using the Long Range Caller (LRC).
Again, run once per spread.

Experiments Group MP2LRC
In MultiPlayer (MP), spending approx 20mins (real time) before going to spread setup (2), using the Long Range Caller (LRC).
3 times, 1 per spread.


Blue/Green/Red Circles on Screenshots
Red = Circles flock (because they're usually in the distance at the time of the SS) that did not break.
Green = Circles Geese that broke from flock in screenshot.
Blue = Circle rest of flock which Geese circled in green broke from (it may be difficult to tell from a still image which direction a group is flying, and therefore which group is the "broken from flock" group).

These circle are not just to outline hard-to-see flocks, but also help to provide a quick visual reference when flicking through the images, although which flag/caller/equipment also provides this:
Flag Lure in image = flock failed to break for the Flag Lure.
Long Range Caller in image = flock failed to break for the Long Range Caller.
Short Range Caller in image = flock broke formation.
Binoculars used in image = flock failed to break for just decoys (no caller/lure used)
HunterMate in image = other info shown (ie arrival time at spread/player chat)


Write Up 1 - Results
I couldn't quite get the layout of the Results in this thread to match the actual document in such a way that it was easy to view. As mentioned at the top though, this is included in the downloadable Evidence folder.


Write Up 2 - Findings
NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, use of the word "average" refers to "Mean Average".

Control Group 1
As the results of Control group 1 show, the attraction affect from a full decoy spread alone is roughly 4 breaking flocks on average out of every 13 flocks, or roughly 1 in every 3.
However, this is actually higher in Singleplayer and lower in Multiplayer (a trend which you will see throughout the results), being 1 in 6 on average in Multiplayer (1.67 in 10 = 2 in 12) and 2 in 5 on average in Singleplayer.
When you consider the price of 5000em$ being £33 and the cost of a Canada Goose Decoy Full Spread bundle as 1560em$, a full spread costs £10.30 - do bear in mind, however, that the cost of a full spread would be higher if a smaller em$ package is bought (eg 2000 instead of 5000), or the Decoys were not purchased as a Full Spread Bundle (buying 2 Quarter Spreads and a Half Spread at different times, for example). Because I understand that the decoys are intended to be used in conjunction with either the Long Range Caller or the Flag Lure, I think that getting 2 flocks in 5 to break in Singleplayer for the cost of £10.30 is reasonable, but I question whether the same cost to get a break rate of 1:6 in Multiplayer is justifiable.

Control Group 2
The results in Control group 2 show that the attraction affect of just the Long Range Caller and the Flag Lure is roughly 2 breaking flocks on average out of 11 flocks (or 1 in 5.5, roughly).
The number of flocks that broke formation during these experiments was equal between Multiplayer and Singleplayer (3, on average), however the number of flocks in Multiplayer was again less than in Singleplayer (although only slightly this time), with 16 flocks during each Multiplayer experiment compared to an average 17.5 flocks in Singleplayer.
When you consider the price of 5000em$ being £33 and the cost of either the Canada Goose Flag Lure or the Canada Goose Long Range Caller as just 175em$, one of these costs just £1.15. Because the break rate of these when used on their own is roughly the same as a full decoy spread also used alone, I again question whether the price of a full decoy spread is justified.
The experiments weren't actually performed in the same order as they appear in the Results, but Control group 2 is the first example in the Results where an indication of less flocks after 45 minutes is seen - although, just by chance, this wasn't as prevalent during Multiplayer as it was in Singleplayer during this group.

Control Group 3
The results of Control group 3 clearly show that there are less flocks after 45 minutes compared to during those 45 minutes. It also clearly shows the difference in the number of total flocks between Singleplayer and Multiplayer, as well as the lower break rate in Multiplayer compared to Singleplayer (both a full Decoy spread and a Flag Lure was used during this group).
In Multiplayer, the break rate on average was roughly 1 in 5 (1:4.745), whereas it was 1:2 on average in Singleplayer.
In Multiplayer, 81.61% of all flocks that flew over during a hunt occurred during the first 45 minutes, on average, leaving only 18.39% of all flocks occurring after 45 minutes. In Singleplayer, 60.01% of all flocks that flew over occurred during the first 45 minutes, leaving 39.99% of all flocks occurring after 45 minutes.

Group 1
The results of group 1 again show that there is a higher break rate in Singleplayer than in Multiplayer, and a (in this instance, slightly) higher number of flocks in total too (10, 11, 17, 18, 19 & 21 flocks in MP compared to 15, 15, 15, 16, 19 & 24 flocks in SP).
On average, there were 16 flocks per Multiplayer hunt and 17.33 flocks per Singleplayer hunt (1 extra flock over 17 every 3 hunts).
On average, the break rate in Multiplayer was 2 in 5, whereas the break rate in Singleplayer was 1 in 2 (1:1.8).
The fact that the 'three-quarters of an hour' Flag Lure Singleplayer experiment at Spread 1 managed to outperform all Multiplayer experiments, including the three Flag Lure Experiments that were all 2 hours long, is very telling.

Group 2
It's important to note that, as mentioned in the Results, that the reason the trend for more flocks in Singleplayer and Multiplayer looks reversed in this group is simply down to my arrival at the spread being earlier during 5 of the 6 Flag Lure experiments when compared to the 6 Long Range Caller experiments. This was because these 5 were five of the first experiments I had run and I had yet to nail down both the experiment length that balanced length against results and when the flock numbers seems to reduce (initially believing it was after 25 minutes).
If we ignore all flocks of experiment MP2FL @ Spread 1 before 0725hrs, which is 45 minutes after the start of that hunt, then count only the flocks during the next 45 minutes (from 0725hrs until 0810hrs) - which would then bring it's results in-line with the other 'hour and a half' experiments - it would show 6 flocks with 2 breaks. Doing the same to the other two 2 hour experiments would return the following results: MP2FL @ Spread 2 - 6 flocks with 1 break; MP2FL @ Spread 3 - 4 with 3 breaks. Doing the same for the Singleplayer experiments at spreads 1 and 2, where I also arrive "early" (but also end the hunt "on time" after 90 minutes) returns the following results: SP2FL @ Spread 1 - 2 flocks, both broke; SP2FL @ Spread 2 - 4 flocks with 1 break. These adjusted figures are shown in the "Group 2 (Adj)" table.
When comparing the Adjusted figures to the other experiment groups, we can see that the all of the trends are still apparent.

Experience of Other Players On My Server
Although the difference isn't great, WormyWells had less flocks when I was elsewhere on the reserve compared to when I was with him observing. During the Observations, I did not use either the caller or the lure to assist - I merely held whichever Wormy was using at the time in the screenshot for visual reference. There is also a big difference between the number of flocks that broke while I was observing compared to when he was alone. I find it very interesting that, when compared with the results of Control group 1, Wormy had a break rate when not observed similar to the break rate of the full Decoy spread - 1 in 6.
You can see in the other screenshots of the experiences of other players (especially Luma0103) that everyone seems to have a low yield, regardless of what I'm doing at the same time.


Write Up 3 - Conclusion
When looking at all the evidence, I think it's pretty clear that there are several problems with the Canadian Geese.

Number of Flocks
There is indeed a lower number of flocks in Multiplayer than in Singleplayer. On average (when comparing the Mean Average number of flocks), a 90 minute Multiplayer hunt has roughly 12 flocks of Geese, whereas a 90 minute Singleplayer hunt sees roughly 16 flocks. This means that, on average, there are 25% less flocks in Multiplayer than in Singleplayer.
I suspect that the flocks are sent in random paths across the entire reserve in Multiplayer, leading to even the host seeing less flocks, whereas their paths are aimed more towards the player in Singleplayer hunts. Either that or the number of flocks is artificially reduced in Multiplayer. The number of flocks needs to be increased across the board, or at the very least in Multiplayer.

Number of Breaks
It is obvious that the break probability is artificially lowered in Multiplayer. On average (when comparing the average (Mean) number of breaks in the Multiplayer to those in Singleplayer), flocks of Geese break 58.9% less often in Multiplayer than in Singleplayer. The fact that flocks of Geese break less consistently shows it can't just be random chance.

Number of Flocks After 45 Minutes
In experiments where I recorded the number of flocks both before and after the 45 minute mark during a hunt, it is obvious that there are less flocks after 45 minutes, even when no Geese are being killed during the hunt.
When comparing the average number of flocks after 45 minutes to the number of flocks during those 45 minutes, approximately 64.4% of all the flocks that fly over during a 90 minute hunt do so within the first half of that hunt. Even during the experiments of Control group 3 (where no geese were killed), 81.61% of flocks in Multiplayer and 60.01% of flocks in Singleplayer on average flew over during the first 45 mins of a 90 minute hunt. Again, this is consistent.
As I mention in one of the email replies to the Support Team, I suspect the flocks are landing elsewhere in the reserve where they then stay. I suggest that the AI of Geese be altered so that they never stay on the ground for longer than, say, 5 minutes. This way, they will always be "recycled" and sent over the reserve again instead of waiting to be startled back into the air.
Additionally, the flocks need to be more effectively spaced apart - 8 flocks in the first 10 minutes is too many and 8 flocks in the last 45 minutes of a 90 minute hunt is too few.

Prices of Attractants
It seems that the either: the price of a full Decoy spread is too high when comparing the break probability of a full spread to the much cheaper Flag Lure and Long Range Caller; or the attraction of a full Decoy spread is too low when compared to the attraction of the much cheaper Flag Lure and Long Range Caller.
In my honest and humble opinion, considering the prices of a full Decoy spread - even at the cheapest possible (buying a Full Spread Bundle out of a 5000em$ package) - I think the break probability should be at least 2:5 for a full spread, 1:6 for both the Flag Lure & Long Range Caller, and 3:4 when a Lure/Caller is used in conjunction with a full spread. This should be the same whether the player is in Singleplayer of Multiplayer, and whether the player is using their own Decoy spread or on a server at someone else's. I also think a break ratio of 9:10 when 2 players are stacking the Lure and Caller together at a full spread is appropriate.

Other Players Using Lure/Caller at a Decoy Spread
On top of the above, it seems my experiments added with the experiences of other players on my server, especially the experiments ran by player WormyWells, have shown that the break probability for other players using a Long Range Caller or a Flag Lure at a Decoy spread is lower than that for the host.
When the average break rate of WormyWells' non-observed experiments is compared to the average break rate of a full Decoy spread alone and the average break rate of a Flag Lure/Long Range Caller alone, it's so similar that either one or the other is not attracting Geese for other players - either the attraction of the Decoy spread they're hunting at is negated and only the attraction of their Lure/Caller is what causes the flocks to break, or the attraction of their Lure/Caller is negated and only the attraction of the Decoy spread brings down the Geese.


So, what is everyone else's opinions and experience with Canadian Geese? Do you see the same trends that these experiments uncovered?
22SAS_Wimp
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Posts: 133
Joined: June 23rd, 2015, 11:33 am
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Re: The Problems with Canadian Geese

Post by 22SAS_Wimp »

Request for other players to run experiments - http://forum.thehunter.com/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=86241
22SAS_Wimp
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Posts: 133
Joined: June 23rd, 2015, 11:33 am
Contact:

Re: The Problems with Canadian Geese

Post by 22SAS_Wimp »

Evidence folder deleted from my OneDrive.
I would like to give my sincere thanks to those that took the time to investigate the issues with the Geese.
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